The Southern Ontario/WNY Radio-TV Forum » The "51st state" and its implications (Political Thread)

tdotwriter · January 7, 2025 7:43 am

My idea here is to discuss in the most neutral manner possible what a hypothetical merger into the United States would look like for our media and telecommunications industries in general. I'm aware that the U.S has long had very different regulations governing traditional broadcasting, relatively little governing what are known in Canada as BDUs (Broadcast Distribution Undertakings) and almost none governing anything not available over-the-air.

If the almost-impossible were to happen, I would assume Canada would inherit all of the American regulations from top to bottom, some of which would be for the better and others potentially for the worse. I imagine the CRTC would effectively cease to exist. It could be absorbed into the United States' Federal Communications Commission or shut down altogether depending on how much or how little the FCC would need to expand its operations to cover our domestic infrastructure that their laws would require them to regulate.

I think the effects of absorption would be too vast for me to cover here myself, but one interesting subject is terrestrial radio stations. Broadcast callsigns for standalone radio and TV stations in the US, as a general rule with some exceptions, use the W prefix east of the Mississippi River and the K prefix west of it. If there's no legal mechanism by which the Canadian Cx prefixes could be added to the U.S's internationally regulated allotments, this would lead to a chaotic situation whereby stations in the eastern portion of our country would have to re-assigned new callsigns with the W prefix. Presumably, the K prefix would be assigned in each of the provinces and arctic territories west of Ontario, if logic and tradition were to be adhered to. Alternatively, the two prefixes could be used interchangeably, especially if Canada were to become a single 51st state with no remaining internal geopolitical separations.

I also wonder about what the legality would be of some of our domestic FM stations on the same frequencies as ones in the U.S, such as CFPT 106.5 Toronto and WYRK Buffalo and CKJN 92.9 Haldimand and WBUF Buffalo. I imagine that in such cases where close co-channel neighbors exist, the American station that was on the air beforehand might gain legal supremacy, requiring signal power reductions and/or directionality changes that could render the Canadian stations un-viable or force them off the air altogether on account of the U.S's existing contour protection rules for FM stations. I also wonder about newer U.S FM signals such as 102.1 WJCA in the Batavia/Albion area. This station intrudes heavily on what had been well within the natural coverage area of CFNY (The Edge) from Toronto prior to late 2001. This would obviously be a hot mess and potential grounds for legal disputes to be handled by the courts.

I've barely scratched the surface of what a merger with the U.S would mean for broadcasting and telecommunications landscape, but I'm very intrigued by this hypothetical scenario and would appreciate some better insight from those with better knowledge of U.S broadcast regulation and how we might adapt to it, should the almost-impossible actually happen. I hope any potential discussion here doesn't get out of hand.

Last edited by tdotwriter (January 7, 2025 9:08 am)

RadioActive · January 7, 2025 8:05 am

Interesting premise. I'm pretty sure they'd grandfather in the "C" call signs, because it would be almost impossible to rebrand so many stations. (Similar to the "V" calls in Newfoundland that still exist because they were around before that province joined Confederation.)

One other thing to be considered is that "U.S. Canadians" would now have access to HBO, Showtime, and all the other American cable outlets. What would that do to Crave and StackTV? I doubt they'd be around long, since a lot of the former's programming is from HBO.

Finally, as terrible as a 51st state status would be, there is one upside - no more simsub!

Shorty Wave · January 7, 2025 8:26 am

Sorry folks, but if we were to become the 51st state, I don’t think we’d have any control over things like broadcasting, banking, governing, etc.etc., it would be game over for us, and access to HBO and Showtime won’t make me feel any better about it. Circle the wagons.

mace · January 7, 2025 9:00 am

I am sure Mr. Fybush could offer an informed opinion on this subject.

tdotwriter · January 7, 2025 9:07 am

Fybush would indeed be an excellent commenter on this subject. I actually didn't give thought at first to the effects this would have on TV. The networks, the individual stations which are mostly O&O'd (owned & operated) in Canada, the retransmitters, whether new ones would be built, whether the companies that own the affiliates in the U.S would have any interest in our broadcast properties, etc.

Last edited by tdotwriter (January 7, 2025 9:08 am)

RadioActive · January 7, 2025 9:22 am

tdotwriter wrote:
Fybush would indeed be an excellent commenter on this subject. I actually didn't give thought at first to the effects this would have on TV. The networks, the individual stations which are mostly O&O'd (owned & operated) in Canada, the retransmitters, whether new ones would be built, whether the companies that own the affiliates in the U.S would have any interest in our broadcast properties, etc.

Clearly things would change drastically. If you think of the line-ups of most Canadian networks, they buy shows that get offered up on the U.S. networks. Some are from CBS, others ABC, Fox or NBC.

That wouldn't work in the U.S.

CFTO, for example, would almost certainly have to affiliate with one of the networks and show only their programming. Same for Global and City TV. And there's no way of knowing what would happen to the CBC!

Radiowiz · January 7, 2025 9:40 am

RadioActive wrote:
Finally, as terrible as a 51st state status would be, there is one upside - no more simsub!

The sim sub would still function to protect local advertising.

Fox Buffalo already does this a lot. They start with a national feed, then cut something off after only two (or so) seconds to make room for their own local commercials.

Scarboroughbluffsradiof99 · January 7, 2025 11:14 am

I hope we stay our own country.
The only good that will come out of it is more HD subchannels like in the states.
And also, more exposier to cancon for Americans.

RadioActive · January 7, 2025 11:38 am

Radiowiz wrote:
RadioActive wrote:
Finally, as terrible as a 51st state status would be, there is one upside - no more simsub!
The sim sub would still function to protect local advertising.

Fox Buffalo already does this a lot. They start with a national feed, then cut something off after only two (or so) seconds to make room for their own local commercials.

I don't care about the commercials. As long as the programming is intact and direct from the originating network, I'd be fine with it.

Scarboroughbluffsradiof99 · January 7, 2025 11:42 am

RadioActive wrote:
Radiowiz wrote:
RadioActive wrote:
Finally, as terrible as a 51st state status would be, there is one upside - no more simsub!
The sim sub would still function to protect local advertising.

Fox Buffalo already does this a lot. They start with a national feed, then cut something off after only two (or so) seconds to make room for their own local commercials.
I don't care about the commercials. As long as the programming is intact and direct from the originating network, I'd be fine with it.

Rogers is allreddy prepaired with xfinity and the all american programing on their networks.
I think rogers hates being canadian and hates canada like trump.

mace · January 7, 2025 12:10 pm

Radiowiz wrote:
RadioActive wrote:
Finally, as terrible as a 51st state status would be, there is one upside - no more simsub!
The sim sub would still function to protect local advertising.

Fox Buffalo already does this a lot. They start with a national feed, then cut something off after only two (or so) seconds to make room for their own local commercials.

That is not simsub. The Buffalo and Seattle stations sometimes cut a network promo to insert a local ad. This often happens just before the local 11pm newscast.

Davenet · January 7, 2025 12:13 pm

I think that if this were to happen, all Canadian media, cable and wireless companies would be quickly bought out by the American giants. Any media companies that remain would have nothing to broadcast, as they hold the broadcast rights for programs in a country that no longer exists.

The CRTC would disappear, of course, along with all of the funds used to support the Canadian broadcast system (the Independent Local News Fund, for example).

The CBC would also be gone in short order. There is no way they would survive without government funding, and the American government is certainly not going to step up. In fact, the incoming administration may well pull its funding for PBS and NPR as one of the items in Project 2025 plan.

Retaw · January 7, 2025 1:00 pm

You know, when our Prime Minstrel called Canada "post-national," I don't think this is what he meant.

Last edited by Retaw (January 7, 2025 1:01 pm)

Scarboroughbluffsradiof99 · January 7, 2025 1:13 pm

Davenet wrote:
I think that if this were to happen, all Canadian media, cable and wireless companies would be quickly bought out by the American giants. Any media companies that remain would have nothing to broadcast, as they hold the broadcast rights for programs in a country that no longer exists.

The CRTC would disappear, of course, along with all of the funds used to support the Canadian broadcast system (the Independent Local News Fund, for example).

The CBC would also be gone in short order. There is no way they would survive without government funding, and the American government is certainly not going to step up. In fact, the incoming administration may well pull its funding for PBS and NPR as one of the items in Project 2025 plan.

I hope they don't defund PBS.
Their documentaryies are one of the best.
What are they going to replace it with? instagram influencers? tiktokers?

paterson1 · January 7, 2025 1:21 pm

Well this is interesting. I think a bit premature since the whole 51st state thing is more trolling on line than anything so far. Is Trump serious? Maybe, he likely would love to be in charge of the world's biggest country by land mass which would happen if Canada and the US were to become one. Even better if Greenland joins the party. Will it happen, I doubt it.

I am going off topic here a bit, but do get into broadcasting a bit further down. Hard to talk about one and not the other.

We could have even closer economic ties to the US which would be good and bad. A nice sunny trip to Florida with no border and no passport is appealing. I have my doubts about adopting the American form of government and legal system. Net gain for Canada would be zero since our parliamentary system is superior in my opinion, and our legal system while flawed, would leave us with one that has even bigger problems than what we have now.

I do have an issue with a country or individual who up until very recently was claiming that the new USMCA was the "best trade agreement that the world has ever seen." But now suddenly "we are getting ripped off by Canada and Mexico". And through no fault of Canada, we are facing a 25% tariff on all of our goods to the US. The USMCA was to get rid of tariffs, not add to them.

The issue with the Canada-US border is a side show to justify the tariff. Yes our border should be tighter, but then again the border becomes a mute point if the two countries join.

I know I have delved off of the broadcast/media area, but like I said above, it can be tricky to separate the two. The FCC has lots of regulations for broadcasters and OTA stations, and many are different than here.

Cable companies like Rogers, Bell, Shaw etc likely couldn't survive and would be absorbed by the much larger US operations like Comcast. You would need to kiss time shifting good bye, and receiving out of market stations on cable. This apparently is a big issue with the FCC, they protect the territory of local stations. Also any streaming of sports and specialized programming that is currently picked up for free or at no additional cost by a Canadian network will be gone.

All the other stuff like call letters, even simsub will work itself out. I agree that local stations or affiliates in Canada that survive will probably become an an affiliate of one of the US networks, so prime time programming will be with your home network and no more cherry picking for programming.

Local news may improve a lot if the cable companies are forced to pay Canadian stations for the right to carry their signals similar to what they have in the US. But be prepared for some blackouts during the negotiations.

I think radio could see the least change since local radio could in fact have a bit of a resurgance. Cancon would be gone and I am sure that some large stations will be purchased by US operators. Local radio might be the only real survivor in all of this.

Any merger also gives the US networks, streamers, cable channels etc. a chance to change or modify their systems and regulations. As we know American broadcasters including radio are not in a great place either.

Finally, there could be some areas that nobody is even thinking about where Canada is leading the US. One area is telecommunications, where we are more advanced with fibre optics and in remote areas than American counterparts. This would be good news for Bell, Rogers, Telus, Videotron etc. They will get out of broadcasting but could very well excel in their larger more profitable divisions.

Sorry for getting out of the broadcast area a bit and for the long post...

Scarboroughbluffsradiof99 · January 7, 2025 1:52 pm

I hope cancon is not gon.
Specialy in the east coast, There's lots of good folk/celtic groups from nova scotia and newfoundland.
American music does not beet some good east coast traditional music.

Dale Patterson · January 7, 2025 6:48 pm

RadioActive wrote:
Interesting premise. I'm pretty sure they'd grandfather in the "C" call signs, because it would be almost impossible to rebrand so many stations. (Similar to the "V" calls in Newfoundland that still exist because they were around before that province joined Confederation.)

One other thing to be considered is that "U.S. Canadians" would now have access to HBO, Showtime, and all the other American cable outlets. What would that do to Crave and StackTV? I doubt they'd be around long, since a lot of the former's programming is from HBO.

Finally, as terrible as a 51st state status would be, there is one upside - no more simsub!

No more Can-Con either.

fybush · January 7, 2025 11:48 pm

I guess I've been summoned?

The whole idea is, of course, ridiculous and impossible. Sane Americans understand the concept of sovereignty and we're not interested in invading Greenland or Panama or Canada (except as tourists!)

That said, IF Canada were somehow to become a US state, the FCC and broadcasting would be the least of the issues that would have to be resolved. How do you do things like harmonizing health care systems or social security?

Canada as a US state would presumably have to follow the same FCC rules as the other 50 states, which means things like Cancon requirements would have to go away. So would language restrictions, which would run afoul of the first amendment in our Constitution. (That isn't going to play well in Quebec, for sure.)

Canada as a US state would end up with the same ownership limits that the rest of the US does, so instead of two or three FMs, you'd be able to own up to five in a big market. You'd certainly see a whole bunch of stations changing hands.

There would presumably be some grandfathering of technical rules to allow some of the second- and third-adjacent and border overlap issues that would otherwise be in violation. I don't know what you would do about the difference between Canadian nested repeaters for AMs (which have no power limit) and US translators (which are limited to 250 watts).

Callsigns are administered by the ITU, an international body, and presumably the Canadian CF-CK and VE/VO blocks would become part of the US allocation, allowing Canadian stations to keep their existing calls. It's worth noting that at least as far as the FCC is concerned, call letters are more of a vanity identifier - the real identifier used in the FCC database system is a facility ID number that never changes.

The CBC? I suppose the "state of Canada" could retain it as a state-funded public broadcaster, though the TV network would presumably have to become non-commercial and - wait, are we really taking any of this nonsense this seriously?

And yeah, as long as we're in this cloud-cuckoo territory, I suppose commercial TV in Canada would get subsumed into the US networks, if not by ownership than at least by affiliation. Which then answers the question of out-of-market station carriage, too. Right now, Bell/Corus/Rogers buy Canada-wide rights to all of their programming, and it makes little difference to them whether you're watching your CTV or Global from Toronto or Saskatoon - they own the rights either way.

As part of the US, though, those rights to network programming would be obtained on a market-by-market basis. WHEC in Rochester only has the rights to transmit NBC or syndicated programming to viewers in the Rochester market. Now that would become the same arrangement for, say, CFTO and Toronto.

Presumably there would have to be a transition period where Canadian TV stations would have to start negotiating retransmission consent with cable providers - and Bell, Rogers, Shaw, etc. would have to choose between being cable operators or broadcasters, because you can't be both.

Does this all sound nuts? It IS. Nobody with any sanity down here takes any of this seriously.

We're two separate nations with different ways of doing so many things. Let's keep it that way!

Radiowiz · January 8, 2025 12:34 am

fybush wrote:
I guess I've been summoned?
Canada as a US state would presumably have to follow the same FCC rules as the other 50 states, which means things like Cancon requirements would have to go away. So would language restrictions, which would run afoul of the first amendment in our Constitution. (That isn't going to play well in Quebec, for sure.)

That being said, this means that there would be massive layoffs in the MD department of music formatted radio stations. WKSE's MD could manage Toronto's Kiss 92 etc... without proper Can Con it's a lot easier to just toss on a WKSE (music) repeater with local input only where necessary.

SpinningWheel · January 8, 2025 12:52 am

Don't listen to the senile orange blowhard. Not much chance of that happening, and it wouldn't be the 51st. state. There are 10 provinces and 3 territories, so try 51-63 states. Considering they still haven't given Puerto Rico or Guam statehood, it's even a longer shot from their side and almost impossible in our system. We're not even using the same kind of governments. Theirs is a Republic, ours a Parliamentary Democracy.

That, and other realities are outlined very well in this article,
Trump repeats his call to annex Canada following Trudeau’s plan to resign. It’s a tougher task than he might imagine

I just wish the Canadian media would take a deep breath and realize their being trolled by a mentally unstable serial liar and ease up on parroting every stupid thing out of his mouth as if it was The Gospel because it makes them look like his useful idiots. Apparently unquestioningly quoting Trump's daily bullshit is an easier job than actually doing real reporting.

Last edited by SpinningWheel (January 8, 2025 12:55 am)

tdotwriter · January 8, 2025 8:34 am

I certainly am not taking the idea of annexation by the U.S seriously, and I don't feel that it should happen. Our country is in need of repair and restoration, not decommissioning. We functioned well as a sovereign nation and good neighbor of the U.S for 150 years and are entirely capable of doing so again. This topic and the scenario that inspires it is pretty much fantasy. I really hope my imagination here hasn't caused too much drama.

67GreenRambler · January 8, 2025 9:32 am

Trump is so mentally unstable, with all this 51st State talk, he's persuaded NATO members that they're dependency on American money to defend them is over.

Radiowiz · January 8, 2025 9:49 am

We might be getting too political on a radio board.
When Hitler was elec...wait that's too political also.

I'll just go back to what I said earlier, but add in, what will ownership rights be like?
Does a 51st state mean that Bell will finally have their way, and then some, with 60% ownership of a market instead of the current 4 station max?

Leslieville Bill · January 8, 2025 10:33 am

Can the title of this post be changed to "The Political Thread" so I don't accidentally click on it?

RadioActive · January 8, 2025 10:44 am

Leslieville Bill wrote:
Can the title of this post be changed to "The Political Thread" so I don't accidentally click on it?

I added a political thread warning in the title for you if that helps. I realize this can veer off into a political bent - it's almost inevitable given the provocative subject - but I have to say I found the topic intriguing. What would happen to broadcasting here if the U.S. was in charge? Even though I've tried repeatedly (and not always successfully!) to keep this place politics-free, I've found some of the answers here quite interesting!

In any event, you now have your warning and I hope it helps you and others who would rather not read stuff like this.

paterson1 · January 8, 2025 11:18 am

Canada is going to need to do a much better job at pushing the facts on a lot of things. One would be our military which we all agree needs to be built up and needs a big increase in funding to reach the 2% spend that we and all NATO countries are committed to......However...

At about $31 billion currently spent on the military, Canada has the 6th highest spend in NATO right now, out of 32 member countries. To reach the 2% target we will need to increase yearly spend to about $45 billion, based on the current size of the economy.

Our problem is the size of our economy at $2.2 trillion US and the size of the country. Per capita, Canada is a more expensive country to run than say France or Spain which are much smaller, and have larger populations. We have the world's longest coastline, a somewhat scattered population, and for the size of country a large land mass to try and protect. Also we are much more diversified than most countries. Diversity can be our strength, but also represents unique challenges that others don't deal with as much.

This makes it a bit harder to reach the 2% of gdp. But it is something we must do, and do quicker than planned. It is all about priorities, and like it or not, we will need to put more attention to our military and what we spend on it.

As already mentioned Canada needs to also drive home the fact that right now, we are the 6th highest contributor in terms of money to NATO out of the 32 member countries. This helps to counter the image that we are total laggards, which we are not.

dmcjeff · January 8, 2025 1:10 pm

CBC would merge with PBS perhaps.

Generally speaking on the subject of becoming USA's 51rst state; I would be okay with it since it would end the facade that we are Sovern and make our own decisions. It would also mean that instead of competing with the economies of the american states, we'd work with them towards the same goals.

RadioActive wrote:
tdotwriter wrote:
Fybush would indeed be an excellent commenter on this subject. I actually didn't give thought at first to the effects this would have on TV. The networks, the individual stations which are mostly O&O'd (owned & operated) in Canada, the retransmitters, whether new ones would be built, whether the companies that own the affiliates in the U.S would have any interest in our broadcast properties, etc.
Clearly things would change drastically. If you think of the line-ups of most Canadian networks, they buy shows that get offered up on the U.S. networks. Some are from CBS, others ABC, Fox or NBC.

That wouldn't work in the U.S.

CFTO, for example, would almost certainly have to affiliate with one of the networks and show only their programming. Same for Global and City TV. And there's no way of knowing what would happen to the CBC!

betaylored · January 8, 2025 2:14 pm

As someone whose family regretfully moved from Montreal Quebec back to my hometown of Toronto in the late 1970's, because of the increasing and serious hostility from separatist Francophones towards the Anglo community and our country in general, I am curious at how the most militant "let's separate from Canada!" Francophones must be feeling this moment at the idea of La Belle Province becoming part of the United States of North America.

And what King Charles will have to say on the matter one can only imagine.

Last edited by betaylored (January 8, 2025 2:15 pm)

Radiowiz · January 8, 2025 2:34 pm

betaylored wrote:
As someone whose family regretfully moved from Montreal Quebec back to my hometown of Toronto in the late 1970's, because of the increasing and serious hostility from separatist Francophones towards the Anglo community and our country in general, I am curious at how the most militant "let's separate from Canada!" Francophones must be feeling this moment at the idea of La Belle Province becoming part of the United States of North America.

And what King Charles will have to say on the matter one can only imagine.

Again, I'm not trying to be too political, but because the French side of the big picture keeps coming up in this thread, I think it's important to suggest that after this next Federal election coming up, chances are very high that the Bloc Quebecois may be become the official opposition Federally... Solid and strong, they'll either literally separate and form their own country to steer clear of 51st state status, or maybe stay strong and help Canada NOT become the 51st state.
Distinct society, Distinct Country and all...

(for those who wonder what this has to do with radio, Quebec would have to form their own QRTC if they separate)

Last edited by Radiowiz (January 8, 2025 2:38 pm)

paterson1 · January 8, 2025 2:41 pm

Just watching CNN's coverage of the terrible fires around Los Angeles, they are also trying to balance with some other news. Trumps ramblings about Greenland, Panama and Canada are still percolating on the network as well.

CNN news centre just had an interesting interview with Republican Representative Brendon Gill from Texas regarding Trumps comments on annexing Greenland, the Panama Canal and Canada.

According to the rather angry Mr. Gill, the people of Greenland, Panama and Canada should be "honored" that President elect Trump is even considering these three territories to come under the fold of the US.

Well, I am truly humbled...