CiyNews credits source:  Data Source: Environment and Climate change Canada
https://toronto.citynews.ca/weather/

Reminds me of my time in Ottawa when one of the local AM stations had it's own staff meteorologist who co-hosted the morning show. The station went to great lengths to hype her credentials and experience as the city's "most accurate forecast." However, they didn't count on a local curmudgeon who actually tracked the weather forecast and filed a complaint with the Canadian Broadcast Standards Council. He pointed out that the station's weather forecasts had an accuracy of less than 60 percent and accused them of false advertising. In its reply, the station admitted their much hyped meteorologist didn't actually do any forecasting, but simply read the forecast that was ripped off the CP wire from Environment Canada. To her credit, the meteorologist later left radio and went into TV, where she enjoyed a long and successful career in another part of the country.

Sounds like the "680 News Storm Centre" ...

TV or radio, any appearance by Anthony Farnell (and whatever mutt he brings along) is an automatic channel change.

Weather is not a big deal for radio as all you have to say nowadays is “Hey Sir/Alexa/Google, what’s the weather?” Why go into detail when you can get a weather report anytime as much as you want, instantly.

Last edited by boom boy (May 19, 2024 10:53 pm)

https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/

The Short Answer:
A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.



 

paterson1 wrote:

Where I live and where I went this past weekend to cottage country the forecasts were bang on.  They even predicted the late afternoon rain today correctly.  Don't understand those on here that are always complaining about the same things over and over and over...zzzzzzz.  

You were lucky. My point was - and still is - if you make a prediction on Friday's 6 PM news that this is going to be the perfect sunny long holiday weekend, with no rain, and then less than 24 hours later, there's suddenly precipitation they very specifically told you wasn't going to happen in the forecast for both days, how can you possibly trust anything they say or make any plans?

They do this stuff all the time and never get any blame for getting it wrong because apparently everyone forgets what they were told less than 24 hours ago. I just want an accurate forecast. I get why they might be wrong with the 7-day. A week in weather is something of a best guess and is changeable. 

But blowing it for tomorrow? That's just wrong and it's why I say you can't trust them. 

Toronto weather forecasts will be as accurate as any other around the great lakes.  Why say "you can't trust them?"  This implies forecasters are intentionally putting out incorrect information.  How would you blame the forecaster?   Aren"t they, or Environment Canada largely reporting what the computer models are showing? 

I wonder if the meterologists [or are they weather presenters] at the Buffalo stations are any more accurate than those at the GTA stations. In winter, the forecasters are always covered. If the jet stream moves this way, expect a snowfall. However, if the jet stream moves that way, bring your umbrella, lots of rain instead. However, they still can't accurately tell us how much snow or rain will fall.

mace wrote:

I wonder if the meterologists [or are they weather presenters] at the Buffalo stations are any more accurate than those at the GTA stations. In winter, the forecasters are always covered. If the jet stream moves this way, expect a snowfall. However, if the jet stream moves that way, bring your umbrella, lots of rain instead. However, they still can't accurately tell us how much snow or rain will fall.

They are weather crazy in Buffalo to the point that at least one station, WKBW-TV, always leads their news with the forecast, regardless of what else is happening. I'm convinced that the president could be shot - but first, the weather. As for how accurate they are, I can't say. I don't live there and their weather can be very different from ours. But snow is always a safe bet!

Saul wrote:

Actually, our weather was perfectly dry just north of TO in The Kawarthas. In fact we dealt with minor sunburns.

There's an important factor called Probability of Precipitation, and it comes with every forecast provided to or obtained by media outlets. If the PoP is 20%, it means the understanding at the time the forecast is issued (or determined, really), is that there's a 20% chance of rain or snow in the locale where the analysis is made. No doubt, somewhere, at some time or another, experienced a few drops here and there; or maybe an exceedingly minor thunderstorm materialized from the humidity, or a few clouds congregated and you got a five-minute shower.

The US National Weather Service explains PoP as follows: The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) simply describes the probability that the forecast grid/point in question will receive at least 0.01" of rain. So, in this example, there is a 40 percent probability for at least 0.01" of rain at the specific forecast point of interest!

So if you rely on 680 News for your weather, or don't listen carefully to the weather babe/dude, or don't read your forecast carefully, and just look at the pretty pictures of suns and clouds, you only get the very basic version of the forecast.

I think we might trust meteorologists more if we understood what, exactly, they're presenting. But, alas, we live in an era where people don't pay attention to and/or absorb the details, fine print, and nuances. And many media outlets don't offer them because they take up space/time, or aren't sexy, or ruin a perfectly good story...

I pay very close attention to the forecasts because my plans almost always centre around the weather and I actually try to plan my day around anything bad. I'm not saying they're always wrong. I'm saying it happens way too often that less than 24 hours later, rain somehow pops (or if you prefer PoPs!) into the picture that wasn't predicted at all before. 

It's an inexact science, for all the methods they have of tracking things, but I just want the basics. And I'm finding those are becoming harder to get. 

And by the way, CFTO drives me crazy (well, I'm obviously already there when it comes to this stuff, so let's say they go the extra kilometre)  when they promo that the weather is "next," go to break and then come back with 10 minutes of mostly irrelevant filler stories before they finally get to the forecast. They did this the other night and I timed it - from "coming up next" to actual presentation, it was almost 10 minutes. That's not exactly "next."

I always do my final check on line.  Don't really see the big problem here.

As I recall, there was a sun icon and no PoP listed at all. If I still had it on my DVR, I would go back and double check.

But what stood out was the gushing about what a rare May long weekend it was, without rain in the forecast. Somewhere between Friday night and Sunday's show, everything changed. 

To be fair, I did hear forecasts on Sunday predicting the possibility of thunder and heavy rain and it even came up on my computer app. But with all the radar and weather mapping systems, surely they should have known it was coming 24 hours earlier. So how did they miss it?

RadioActive wrote:

As I recall, there was a sun icon and no PoP listed at all. If I still had it on my DVR, I would go back and double check.

But what stood out was the gushing about what a rare May long weekend it was, without rain in the forecast. Somewhere between Friday night and Sunday's show, everything changed. 

To be fair, I did hear forecasts on Sunday predicting the possibility of thunder and heavy rain and it even came up on my computer app. But with all the radar and weather mapping systems, surely they should have known it was coming 24 hours earlier. So how did they miss it?

I presume the gushing you refer to was a TV or radio weatherperson. They're giving you a general forecast, and unexpected disturbances might pop up here and there. They also simplified it for a nice, neat storyline. But weather is never a completely stable proposition. Sometimes a butterfly unexpectedly flaps its wings while facing due west.