The Southern Ontario/WNY Radio-TV Forum » A SOWNY What If: If AM Dies, Which FM Stations Get The Formats?

RadioActive · September 6, 2023 4:18 pm

It’s totally hypothetical at this point and it will probably never happen, but many have predicted the impending death of AM radio here repeatedly, and there’s ongoing evidence to suggest that could be coming.

If it does, that leads to another question. With the FM dial so overcrowded in the GTA, there’s simply not a single space left to put a full powered, full service radio station, assuming the current broadcasters would want to move their existing AM formats over to FM. If they did, that begs the question: which stations would have to change formats?

Bell

Toronto Stations: CFRB-AM, CHUM-AM, CKFM, CHUM-FM

If they decided to transfer the current CFRB format over to FM, who is the mostly likely candidate to give up their current home? I think CHUM-FM is pretty safe. That would leave 99.9 to become the new 1010. (Ironically, its call letters used to be CFRB-FM a long time ago.) Would Bell be willing to sacrifice a Virgin to save a heritage station? What happens to TSN 1050?

Rogers

Toronto Stations: CityNews 680, The Fan 590, CHFI-FM, CKIS-FM

CHFI is probably the safest of any station in the city. That leaves Kiss FM. Could it become the new “CityNews 92.5?” 680 does pretty well for an AM station. Would they give up the song lines for the headlines? And what happens to the Fan if there’s no other place to put it? Would the Jays and Leafs interrupt the CityNews wheel and just leave all the rest of the jock talk behind?

Corus

GTHA Stations: AM640, Q017, CFNY, Energy 95.3, Y108

AM 640 has never exactly been a huge ratings getter. But assuming Corus wanted to take it over to the other side, who loses their current format? Q107 is, to my mind, untouchable. Maybe CFNY could become Talk 102. I’m not sure what the rating status of Y108 or Energy 95.3 is. One is licenced to Burlington, the other to Hamilton, but both come in quite well in the GTA. Would the CRTC allow a Toronto-oriented talk station on either of those stations that are technically from out of town?

So would any of this happen? And with new rules, could any of the big players simply buy another FM station in the market to make the swap? Would it be worth it economically in today’s declining radio market?

A lot of questions. Maybe not a lot of answers.

Jody Thornton · September 6, 2023 4:53 pm

Bell First:

I think CFRB would/could switch to 99.9. I think both CHUM and Kiss (Rogers) are eating Virgin's lunch with a more gold-based CHR mix, whereas pure CHR demos (in my mind) seem to be the realm of Spotify and YouTube; not radio.

Now if Bell thinks that 1010 is an overall weaker performer, maybe they could salvage its strengths (namely John Moore), and place him in another format. Perhaps CKFM could evolve into some sort of lifestyle/music hybrid. That could get Moore engaged with a younger audience and ensure his longevity.

I don't know about 1050. Does sports do that well at all now? Both the Fan and TSN seem to be floundering. Hey country and AAA don't work in TO; maybe sports doesn't either.

OK Corus:

Wow! I just don't know about 640. Perhaps Bendixen can work some magic here and save it if it goes to FM. I'm betting Hamilton's 95.3 signal could work. Sure it might be out of market, but I'm not sure that CHML can be saved with any FM signal, so perhaps 640 is worth a shot. Now with greater market concentration allowances (more than two FMs), could 95.3 become a third Toronto signal, provided that Corus shows the CRTC that they can adhere to a promise of performance?

So much to think about there. Is there another Corus AM I'm forgetting? There must be.

EDIT: Oh yeah! I forgot about CFNY (Talk 102 - that was a cute reminder of something from the past RA ... lol.) But there's a possibility for 640. So maybe 95.3 can accomodate CHML; but should Corus bother?

Now Rogers:

It's funny. Still having an AM tuner section in my car (I just got a 2017 Nissan Micra SV - Yay!), the ONLY radio I really listen to is 680 for a news wheel or two (maybe a John Moore roundtable here and there), but after that it's off. I think CityNews is a valuable service. But what would I nix on Rogers FM to allow 680 content on it? CHFI still seems strong, and Kiss seems to be finding its niche. Perhaps Rogers could buy the Today 93.5 signal from Stingray, and if approved, place it there, but I hear it's a weaker signal. Hmmm, Maybe Kiss is the sacrificial lamb. Not too sure, but I think 680 is worth salvaging.

As for 590, read above. Oh well, it's a start.

Last edited by Jody Thornton (September 6, 2023 4:59 pm)

RadioAaron · September 6, 2023 5:43 pm

Bell:

There's a chance 99.9 out-bills 104.5 because the increased frequency to meet reach makes up for lower rates. Either way, neither one. Being on AM is only one of 1010's problems. The bigger one is that the format in general is on life-support and not coming back. The only way it gets on FM is if Bell's buys a 96.3/88.1/103.5 and I wouldn't count on any of them as Bell is probably looking to get out of media altogether.

Rogers:
Same scenario as Bell, except 680 probably has a decent future. Still, would any ratings growth increse its billing by more than 92.5's current profit? Nope.

Corus:
95.3. That way they can also put CHML out of its misery, put a little Hamilton content on the FM and call it a day. Leave 640 on so long as it contributes a portion of the ratings.

Last edited by RadioAaron (September 6, 2023 5:45 pm)

RadioListener123 · September 6, 2023 5:57 pm

Bell: Cheaper to do AI DJ music. No talk radio.

Rogers: Cheaper to do AI DJ music. No talk radio.

Corus: Cheaper to do AI DJ music. No talk radio.

RadioAaron · September 6, 2023 6:00 pm

RadioListener123 wrote:
Bell: Cheaper to do AI DJ music. No talk radio.

Rogers: Cheaper to do AI DJ music. No talk radio.

Corus: Cheaper to do AI DJ music. No talk radio.

In the longer term, yeah. In the medium term at least 680 will find its way to FM one way or the other.

The next 5 years will be the biggest shuffle of ownership and formats we've ever seen and trying to predict exactly what that looks like is pretty much impossible.

RadioActive · September 6, 2023 8:46 pm

Are you suggesting that there will be no talk radio format in Toronto if AM dies? I find it hard to believe someone wouldn't take a chance on doing it properly and it could find an audience on FM. Many believe the issue isn't the programming itself, but the band it's on, where a younger demo will never discover it.

I have no idea if that's true, but I would hate to think the closest we'll ever come to talk on FM is the CBC, which, of course, is not all-talk at all. I think someone would take a chance on the format, if for no other reason than it might be the only one doing it and we don't need the 40th station in the same market playing the same Taylor Swift songs over and over and over.

(Didn't mean to insult Ms. Swift. Now she'll probably write a nasty song about me...)

Bristol · September 6, 2023 8:52 pm

Move the AMs. that they haven't already. to HD on their FMs and promote that technology. It is near ubiquitous on most new cars. Also promote the AMs' stream. Blanket all available platforms.

Jody Thornton · September 6, 2023 9:03 pm

Well Halifax has already incorporated the Rogers News/CityNews format on FM, but I wonder if maybe, instead of having a full-fledged talk station on FM, one might take parts of it and integrate it with music or other elements (similarly to CBC perhaps)

Above I suggested that perhaps John Moore's morning show could mix with other programming through the rest of the dayparts (maybe music, but who knows), but I think a 24-hour talk station will not attract younger people. Too many people are put off by the politics, issues programming and what not.

Like 'em or not, take Humble and Fred in the podcast realm, as an example. Why not move talk radio into more "everyday things", like what happened last weekend at the Tin Palace. Talk about dating misadventures, trying out an EV for the first time, what have you. Enough with non-stop Green Belt, Dougie Ford, Justin vs Pollievre, whatever... sigh! They're important issues but you can't and should not force engagement on prospective listeners.

If I were a consultant, I would REALLY research what stuff tops the gamut on YouTube and Tik Tok, and look towards those topics as a start for developing content. Try to do something that such sites/apps aren't doing.

But all of this takes money, time and commitment: something media companies are NOT at all interested in expending.

Jody Thornton · September 6, 2023 9:18 pm

RadioActive wrote:
Are you suggesting that there will be no talk radio format in Toronto if AM dies? I find it hard to believe someone wouldn't take a chance on doing it properly and it could find an audience on FM. Many believe the issue isn't the programming itself, but the band it's on, where a younger demo will never discover it.

You perhaps only find such a thing shocking because you (and many on SOWNY) all listen to AM talk radio. You realize that you are one of the relatively few people that tune in the content, but you're so immersed in it, AM Talk seems more vital to you than it actually is. Plus, when so many on SOWNY still discuss AM talk, it seems like there is still a supportive community behind it. In reality, outside of this forum, almost no attention is paid to it.

I really, REALLY loved AM radio since I was a youngster. For quite a time, talk radio really interested me too, but now the content is so divisive. Besides, the content is so abbreviated and brief, as to allow stop sets, that you can never get in to the nitty gritty details of a subject. Podcasts really excel in this area, plus you get to hear lots of other voices and points of view. Sure some of the production and voicing isn't all that polished, but the superior and more lengthy content outweighs that in spades.

RadioActive · September 6, 2023 9:37 pm

Funny how that works. I used to love listening to music on AM and later on FM. But now I find it deadly dull and boring, possibly because of the tight playlists and so much sameness on all the outlets. At least with talk radio, they switch topics every stop set and introduce something else.

In a strange way, it's like the old Top 40 format - you never quite know what's next, whether it be bubblegum or something super serious. I may be one of the few (although I think there are more of us than you suggest) but I, for one, would miss it if it disappeared. And frankly, I'm not sure what would replace it.

Jody Thornton · September 6, 2023 9:46 pm

RadioActive wrote:
Funny how that works. I used to love listening to music on AM and later on FM. But now I find it deadly dull and boring, possibly because of the tight playlists and so much sameness on all the outlets. At least with talk radio, they switch topics every stop set and introduce something else.

In a strange way, it's like the old Top 40 format - you never quite know what's next, whether it be bubblegum or something super serious. I may be one of the few (although I think there are more of us than you suggest) but I, for one, would miss it if it disappeared. And frankly, I'm not sure what would replace it.

It's funny that you compare AM talk to the CHR format when it used to be on AM. I find now that talk radio just plays the hits (in this case though, they're headlines). There's never too much detail, and subjects are just touched on. I wonder if that's why "In Depth Radio" was dropped as a positioner from 1010 some years ago.

I do agree with you though on music radio. I fail to see how radio can still be considered any sort of go to place for music. I find the music universe of most stations to be too small and predictable. Expanding it won't work because few people listen to a station for hours at a time, and the risk of tune out is too high. I get why playlists are tight, but it's really sad that such a thing is the recipe for ... well, "survival" (I was going to say success, but...)

paterson1 · September 6, 2023 10:22 pm

I find myself listening to talk radio less and less. If I bounce between CFRB, AM 640, CHML, CityNews 570 they all tend to cover similar topics. Even though we have largely avoided the conservative shout fests that occupy a lot of the talk radio to the south, most of the topics I hear are overdone and flogged to death. And too much opinion which gets predictable and boring.

Talk radio in Southern Ontario lacks fun, lacks information that is helpful to listeners, and many of the topics are overly political and seem to encourage conflict. There is an over emphasis of some minor topics, and groups that don't deserve all the free air time they receive . Hey, want to get your groups point of view across? Buy some commercials.

Roy Green lately has been actually toning down a little on the politics. The last few times I have listened to him, he was talking about music. Roy knows more about music than I thought he would. Best of all, he wasn't giving his opinion on everything which was a nice change. He also has touched on a few sports topics which again is a nice change from the usual six or seven political topics that his show fixates on.

Radiowiz · September 6, 2023 11:09 pm

RadioActive wrote:
Are you suggesting that there will be no talk radio format in Toronto if AM dies?

93.5 has the highest potential. They're a music & Talk station currently. All they have to do is gradually play less and less music.
However, this also means adding more content that might cost too much (for Stingray) to run.

RadioActive · September 6, 2023 11:24 pm

Well, this is certainly a timely story. I don't think I actually agree with his conclusions that loosening language on AM will help revitalize the band, but it's certainly one way to look at it. But if he thinks using foul or other more liberal language on the medium is going to draw audiences back to the good old days of AM, I think he's deluded.

Want To Revitalize AM? Push For The ‘A’ To Stand For ADULT

Hansa · September 7, 2023 8:53 am

One reason LW and MW have been or are being shut down in Europe is because of the transition to digital radio. I expect that an AM switch off in North America, when it happens, will either be because digital radio has become the accepted norm in the market or because of an FCC and CRTC-ordered migration as with the switch from analogue to digital TV, in which case AM stations that aren't currently carried on FM digital channels likely will be (hopefully the CRTC would make arrangements for AM stations that don't have FM sister stations to piggyback on.)

Last edited by Hansa (September 7, 2023 8:54 am)

RadioActive · September 7, 2023 10:03 am

What's happened over in Europe, especially the UK, has always fascinated me. They went from having only the BBC and some pirates on radio and very little choice to going all digital, and having more options than we do. Stations of all formats have popped up everywhere and now there's no shortage of them.

So why don't we do it here? I've always believed there are three main reasons.

One, the great DAB experiment by CHUM and others was such a colossal failure and cost so much money, no one is willing to take the chance again.

Two, the U.S. shows no sign of doing it and we often follow their lead. If they go, we likely would eventually be forced to go the same route.

And three, it would render every radio in almost every car completely useless and the cost for replacement would be astronomical. Not to mention all the radios some of us have at home. (Even with a gradual implementation.)

Add to that, streaming the signals over the Internet has become more mainstream and really, why bother? Plus, digital signals don't propagate as well as an AM or even an FM signal, which could prove problematic in some rural areas. And Canada is a very big country with lots of space between small towns.

Perhaps this is the inevitable future of radio. But after forcing millions of people to buy a new TV when everything converted to HDTV and in tough economic times, I can only imagine the reaction if the feds tried to do this.

Does anyone here think it will eventually happen?

I used to think so.

Now I'm not so sure.

km93 · September 7, 2023 10:14 am

What about CJOY? Could this be the next AM to go silent? There isn't an FM for it to go to.

Last edited by km93 (September 7, 2023 10:14 am)

RadioListener123 · September 7, 2023 10:52 am

RadioActive wrote:
Are you suggesting that there will be no talk radio format in Toronto if AM dies? I find it hard to believe someone wouldn't take a chance on doing it properly and it could find an audience on FM. Many believe the issue isn't the programming itself, but the band it's on, where a younger demo will never discover it.

I have no idea if that's true, but I would hate to think the closest we'll ever come to talk on FM is the CBC, which, of course, is not all-talk at all. I think someone would take a chance on the format, if for no other reason than it might be the only one doing it and we don't need the 40th station in the same market playing the same Taylor Swift songs over and over and over.

(Didn't mean to insult Ms. Swift. Now she'll probably write a nasty song about me...)

Talk radio as a format is absolutely brutal without a charismatic host like Conan O'Brien and Howard Stern and I can't think of a single Toronto talk radio personality that comes close to that. The shows are lazily produced with almost no oversight, and the return of Bendixen to the landscape putting people like Anthony Furey on the air means they have no intent of trying to become any better than the trash that already exists.

Bell, Rogers and Corus are only interested in low cost/high profit ventures. Talk radio has to employ typically at least three times the number of people (3 vs 1) for the same time slot as an FM station, sometimes more.

The combination of these two things (bad content/no interest in paying to improve content) is why there will be no talk radio outside of podcasts with people that actually care to do it well. The only reason it still exists is because music sounds terrible on the AM band.

Last edited by RadioListener123 (September 7, 2023 11:07 am)

Hansa · September 7, 2023 12:18 pm

RadioActive wrote:
What's happened over in Europe, especially the UK, has always fascinated me. They went from having only the BBC and some pirates on radio and very little choice to going all digital, and having more options than we do. Stations of all formats have popped up everywhere and now there's no shortage of them.

So why don't we do it here? I've always believed there are three main reasons.

One, the great DAB experiment by CHUM and others was such a colossal failure and cost so much money, no one is willing to take the chance again.

Two, the U.S. shows no sign of doing it and we often follow their lead. If they go, we likely would eventually be forced to go the same route.

And three, it would render every radio in almost every car completely useless and the cost for replacement would be astronomical. Not to mention all the radios some of us have at home. (Even with a gradual implementation.)

Add to that, streaming the signals over the Internet has become more mainstream and really, why bother? Plus, digital signals don't propagate as well as an AM or even an FM signal, which could prove problematic in some rural areas. And Canada is a very big country with lots of space between small towns.

Perhaps this is the inevitable future of radio. But after forcing millions of people to buy a new TV when everything converted to HDTV and in tough economic times, I can only imagine the reaction if the feds tried to do this.

Does anyone here think it will eventually happen?

I used to think so.

Now I'm not so sure.

When people listen to OTA radio these days it's usually in cars. If they're listening to radio stations at home or on their phones it's usually using an app or browser rather than OTA. Even if you have a cell phone that has OTA reception capacity (something the CRTC should can could require, but doesn't thanks perhaps to the power of Rogers and Bell and their preference for people to spend money using up data) it'll be an FM app, not AM.

Most cars only last a maximum of 12 years and at present more than half of all cars in North America are equipped with HD radio. Also, fewer cars today are equipped with AM radios and as we eventually switch to EV or hybrid cars it won't be long before AM radios in cars are obsolete so if the government decides in a few years to switch off the AM band and reallocate the band to other purposes, most people won't notice. It might be longer (if ever) before they require FM analogue transmitters to be switched off and transitioned to digtial - but an AM switchoff is feasible within 10 to 15 years, if not sooner.

Last edited by Hansa (September 7, 2023 12:24 pm)

RadioAaron · September 7, 2023 8:17 pm

RadioActive wrote:
Are you suggesting that there will be no talk radio format in Toronto if AM dies?

No, CBC Radio One, which gets the majority of talk radio tuning, will be just fine.

RadioActive · September 7, 2023 8:36 pm

Yes, CBC R1 is very successful. But I'm not sure I'd exactly label it a fulltime "talk" station, given all of its other programs, including many involving music. But it also has the benefit of a huge injection of taxpayer funds to pay for more producers and researchers than any other station could possibly afford.

My point was that if it's done well (which Bell Media in Toronto especially doesn't seem interested in) an all talk format can be successful. Maybe never #1, but enough that it can hold its own in a market. You just need the money, the talent and the will.

Oh, and speaking of the CBC, this appeared in the Globe and Mail on Thursday. I'm sure the struggling news outlets that depend on advertising and not cash from the feds were happy to read this:

CBC stands to get largest share of cash from Online News Act, experts say

Yep, the one place that needs the money the least of all of them will get the lion's share of it. Funny how that worked out. Another reason to oppose the idiocy of Bill C-18.

RadioAaron · September 7, 2023 8:38 pm

There's very little music on Radio One, and it's all in off-peak hours. Sorry you don't like it, but it's by far the dominant talk station in the market.

Yeah, they've got an advantage (or two) but that's not the point.

I agree with you on the C-18 stuff, but it's also not the point here.

RadioActive · September 7, 2023 8:51 pm

I would call CBC R1 more of a "Variety" format than strictly a talker in comparison to a CFRB or CFIQ. But I suppose it's all in how it's defined.

Taking your point, then, it's proof that talk can work if done correctly. So there's no reason (other than feeding off the government's multi-millions in funding every year) that others can't try to emulate that success.

But it costs money to do it right, and that's Bell and Rogers' kryptonite.

paterson1 · September 7, 2023 9:42 pm

The number one station in Montreal is all talk/sports. CHMP 98.5 has even been the most listened to radio station in Canada occasionally. It is owned by Cogeco and has been a successful talk station for years on FM.

The two Toronto AM talk stations are in such a hole, Bell and Corus could spend millions and would never see anything back. FM talk in Toronto could work but would be a long slog and would never have success like CHMP or Radio One.

An FM talker would also need something beyond yappy opinion radio which doesn't seem to be that popular in the GTA. Some sports talk or sports programming, even some entertainment talk would give the station variety.