I'm sorry you have to go through this in the winter that will not end. In my experience, they only seem to get it wrong when they're forecasting good weather. I've seen 7-day forecasts where the fifth day calls for sun and highs of 23C. As the days go by, that high goes down to 20, then 18 and by the time you get there, the graphic has changed to 15C and rain. 

It happens all the time and my beef has always been that they never explain why the forecast they made on Monday didn't happen on Friday. It just gets ignored like it never happened. 

That's why I found the guy's video in the first post so refreshing. He admitted they blew it and he tried to explain why.

Oddly, CTV Toronto's Lindsay Morrison was on CFRB's Deb Hutton's show Tuesday talking about getting it wrong and the reaction of viewers when she does. She recalled her first TV weather job at CKCO-TV in Kitchener and said she was often flooded with calls when a forecast missed the mark. She noted things are a bit different in Toronto where there are a slew of stations. 

But Channel 13 is the only local TV station in Kitchener/Waterloo, and she pointed out that made it easier for people to complain to the one source they all watched every night.

As someone with some knowledge of how weather works who is considering meteorology as a potential career path, I'd like to offer my take on this. To put it simply, by the sounds of it, everybody or at least almost everybody dropped the ball. Weather forecasting is reliant on a number of things besides just the skills of human forecasters. Forecasters rely on data from third-party entities, particularly the U.S National Weather Service and their Storm Prediction Center.

It sounds like they forecasted the potential for a higher-end severe weather event based on earlier model data and may have failed to adequately communicate whatever uncertainty there may have still been at the time that the forecasts went out.

He seems to also be acknowledging misinterpretation of wind dynamics pertaining to the buoyancy of the air. In other words, it turned out that it wasn't warm or humid enough to allow parcels of warmer air to rise and allow for the formation of the kind of severe storms that can be significant and spawn tornadoes, and prior storms earlier that morning had depleted much of whatever energy was available in the area.

The bottom line: Botched forecasts are an occasional but inevitable fact of life for every meteorologist on the planet. Even with today's technology and methodology, there's simply so much that can be missed or misinterpreted, and if the raw data used in the forecasting process contains parameters that are misleading, this will often lead to inaccurate predictions being shared with the public. Fortunately, this is much less common than in generations past.

I agree with BowanvilleBob anything after 48 hours should be treated with more skepticism than the forecast for this evening or tomorrow.  Usually the forecasts are correct but to expect weather presenters to not adjust a temperature or chance of rain in a seven day forecast is unrealistic.  Nobody can always predict what mother nature has in store, especially seven or more days in advance. 
 
In terms of Mr. Cappucci apologizing for a very wrong forecast.  I take it that the forecast was wrong right up until nothing happened.  Hope he was much less technical and more concise if he did something similar on TV.  But good on him for owning up to the error.  

Warning: Rant Alert Ahead!

Speaking of weather, I noticed CFTO had Lindsay Morrison live at a Maple Syrup Festival on the noon show. As usual, we got five minutes of some spokesperson yakking about how to make the sticky substance and what felt like three and a half seconds of actual weather.

I understand about the "community involvement" and showing your station personality out in public. I wish they wouldn't do it, but the guy that has long since left my station used to love doing those remotes, too.

But for God's sake, if you must do this, please, please, please, do the weather first! I cannot stand sitting there waiting for the maps and the forecast while an organizer prattles on and on about something few of us really care about, while a future storm is approaching.

And then when they DO finally get to the forecast, they say something like, "Oh well, I guess we have to tell you about the weather now," as if it's a chore they'd rather not have to perform. They then rush through the thing because they used up their allotted time talking to a six-year-old kid about how much they love maple syrup. 

There's is zero useful information in that waste of airtime, so just do the forecast first and the shtick later, so those of us who want only the weather can go elsewhere while you please a few parents in the audience. 

I know, I know. Way too much anger over such a stupid thing. But they all do it and it makes me crazy. Just get to the bloody weather already!! (And please, don't get me started over those useless Jessica Smith live hits at an art gallery that precedes the forecast, as an artist drones on for eternity about his or her "vision." They did one of those on CFTO at noon on Wednesday for an exhibit no one I know will ever go see.) Stop wasting our time!

Thank you for allowing the rant. Now back to your regularly scheduled posts. 

paterson1 wrote:

To expect a 7 day forecast to be exactly the same after the 7 days is unrealistic.

Just because a temperature has gone down a few degrees and the day is cloudy rather than mostly sunny doesn't really matter for the average viewer.  Besides, most people expect the 7 day forecast to change.  

Most weather people I watch will say if a front came in further north or south than originally thought, or if the temperature didn't reach the high that was predicted.  CTV Kitchener and CHCH do this all the time.

Love to have a job where you can be wrong all the time?  A little exaggeration don't you think RA??  It is a forecast, not a signed contract...

Of course I don't expect the 7-day to be correct towards the end of the week. My real complaint is that it always (and I mean always) seems to be wrong only when they're predicting good weather.

It starts with a prediction of highs near 20C and sunny for later in the week, then goes down to 18C some 24 hours later and by the time we get to the actual day, it's -3 and snowing. As a cold weather hater and someone desperate for summer after the longest and worst winter in my memory, that's what bugs me. Why is it always the good stuff that they promise almost never materializes? 

Keep track of this over the next few months as we head into spring (if it ever actually arrives) and you'll see exactly what I mean. Just don't promise what you never deliver. 

paterson1 wrote:

First off your example is a bit extreme.  Yes it could happen and in the spring and fall likely does sometime.  So the point is what?  This has nothing to do with TV forecasters lying or not living up to a "promise".  Forecasters don't promise anything.  Do you get this excited when the forecast is mostly cloudy with a high of 17 and we reach 23 and have more sun than cloud?  Happens all the time, do you never comment on that? 

I track this carefully and that almost never happens. It's always forecasts for good weather that never seems to come to fruition. Why I don't know, but the pattern has been going on for years. When they say rain or snow, it almost always does. 

Now that they're no longer using Jessica Smith as a weekend weather anchor (Why not? Who knows?), it seems they have to do something else with her. So she's sent to all these community events, like parties, theatre debuts, art installations, etc. 

I can live with them I suppose, although they are of less than zero interest to a viewer like me. But for God's sake, do the actual news and weather first, and then get to the fluff. I hate having my time wasted while some arty type goes on and on and on about "their inspiration" and "their vision." I just want to know when the rain is coming.